India v Australia: Bowling woes, ideal combinations, and a 15-game streak

Utter dominance - check. Snatching victories from precarious situations - check. All-round depth - check. Captain's resounding return to form - check. On expected lines, Australia have ticked all possible boxes to stamp themselves as an outright dominant force in yet another World Cup. If there were any potential underlying concerns seen at the start of the competition, they remain well hidden.

Against Pakistan, they were reduced to 115 for 8 in the 34th over, and went on to win the contest by a jaw-dropping 107 runs. Against 2022 runners-up England, they stood at 68 for 4 in 15.5 overs chasing 245, and completed it with a staggering 57 balls to spare without breaking a sweat.

Australia are currently on a 15-match winning streak in World Cups - a joint-record alongside as many for them between the 1997 and 2000 editions. Their last defeat had come in the 2017 semi-final against India, powered by Harmanpreet Kaur's monumental 171*. It was India again, who ended their 26-match winning streak - a record in ODIs, Men's or Women's - in MacKay in September 2021. If the hosts need inspiration against the defending champions, this is it.

Australia have a scarcely believable 70-5 win-loss record in ODIs since 2018. While two defeats came in close finishes while defending totals, the other three came by convincing margins of 69, 84 and 102 runs. The last of those - their biggest ever in the format - had come just this September against the hosts. History and team-combinations suggest that India's best chance is to bat their opponent out of the game - much like they did eight years ago - so much so that a record 76-run 10th wicket stand in the run-chase was barely a footnote.

India's quest for a perfect combination

The points table ranks them fourth, but the hosts haven't been outplayed in the tournament yet. Their three defeats could majorly be attributed to them struggling to field a well-rounded XI. They were short of bowling options against South Africa and Australia, and while the change helped them run through the lower-middle order against England, they fell a batter short in the chase.

Pratika Rawal's injury forces them to move away from their most dynamic opening pair yet, and Shafali Verma is primed to walk in as the like-for-like replacement. That leaves them potentially two choices: go with the same combination (Shafali for Pratika) as they did against New Zealand last week, or make room for Amanjot Kaur - who offers both. Harleen Deol, who has been striking at 63.2 in the first 30 balls of her innings since her comeback in December, could get an axe in the latter case. It's worth noting that India allowed the White Ferns to get to 271 for 8 (44 overs) despite reducing them to 59 for 3 earlier. With rain around, a shortened game could further validate that call.

India's bowling woes

India's bowlers have collectively conceded at 5.25 runs per over in the competition, the second-worst after New Zealand's 5.35. Their average of 29.90 stands fifth among the eight teams, bettered by co-semifinalists and Pakistan. The bowling struggles are further magnified when matches featuring only the four semifinalists are factored in.

Tournament bowling stats in matches featuring only the four semi-finalists

Seam bowling stats in matches featuring only the four semi-finalists

India seamers have gone at well over run-a-ball, conceding a boundary every six balls against the top-three teams. Stating that Harmanpreet has been handicapped by the lack of go-to seam bowling options at crunch moments won't be an exaggeration, as was visible against South Africa and Australia.

Can Australia exploit India's struggles vs left-arm spin?

It was Sophie Molineux who broke India's 155-run opening stand in the league phase, removing the in-form Mandhana, and later combined with Annabel Sutherland to bundle out the hosts with seven balls unused in a contest that was eventually won with an over to spare. Her first five overs went for 45, and she went at run-a-ball thereafter, bagging the key wickets of Harleen and Deepti Sharma.

India needed 56 off the final nine overs with seven wickets remaining against England, and Linsey Smith and Sophie Ecclestone collectively bowled six of those and dismissed Mandhana and Deepti respectively to script a dramatic turnaround. Left-arm spinners have been the most successful breed among bowlers in the tournament, followed by right-arm wrist spin, and Australia have both variety in their line-up. Furthermore, they have been the spin-bowling unit in terms of average (18.29) and strike-rate (24.8), while India have had their struggles against left-arm spin for the last 10 months. They have lost 17 wickets in 90 overs of left-arm spin they've faced in the competition - both highest among the eight teams. It all adds up perfectly for Australia.

Bowling numbers in the tournament

India batters vs left-arm spin (since WI series in Dec 2024)

Shafali Verma, whose last ODI appearance came exactly a year ago (October 29, 2024), has aggregated 84 off 121 with five dismissals (Avg: 16.8, SR: 69.42) against left-arm spin in the format.

Key matchups

Healy vs Goud

Healy was dismissed by Kranti Goud in all three ODIs the two sides played in September, aggregating 39 off 34 against the seamer across those games. In the group game in Visakhapatnam, she took 34 off 22 (SR: 154.54) of the seamer, including three fours and a six in the eighth over of the innings to kickstart the initial onslaught. Healy (123.23) and Litchfield (103.93) boast the best strike-rate in the PowerPlay in the competition, while Kranti has been underwhelming post her 3 for 20 against Pakistan. This contest could well be the crucial determinant to the eventual result.

Mandhana vs Gardner

The top-ranked batter pinned against the top-ranked all-rounder (also the third-ranked bowler). Mandhana would often slow down against right-arm off break in both ODIs and T20s previously, until upping her strike-rate in recent times. Between her debut until 2023 end, she struck at 76.54 against off-spinners. Since 2024, she has amassed 554 off 488 (Avg: 110.8, SR: 113.52) against them. Gardner had got the better of her until 2024, but the left-hander has come out trumps every time the two have faced off this year, none as spectacularly as in the Delhi ODI last month - 40 off 16, SR: 250 - during her 63-ball 125.

Mandhana vs Gardner in ODIs

Mandhana's stay at the crease could also delay Alana King's introduction to the attack. The wrist-spinner has 42 wickets at 12.64 (ER: 3.91) while bowling to right-handers in ODIs since 2024, but has managed 2 for 87 off 83 balls to lefties (ER: 6.28) in the timeframe. She was introduced in the 26th over of the Indian innings in Visakhapatnam, after Mandhana was dismissed in the previous over.

Rodrigues vs King

King bagged 7 for 18 in her most recent outing against South Africa, while Rodrigues reinstated her versatility in a crucial game against New Zealand. Rodrigues has had an upper hand against King in ODIs so far - 77 off 68, no dismissal, SR: 113.23, and has stellar numbers against spin in ODIs in 2025 (377 runs at 53.85, SR: 108.95). Of the eight opponents she has been up against in the format, King has had the worst numbers against India - 11 wickets at 34.63, ER: 5.93 but in a big semifinal clash, this could be her night to turn up.